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WYNN RESORTS LTD (WYNN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered operating revenues of $1.70B and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.69; adjusted diluted EPS was $1.07 and Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $532.9M, with softness driven by Macau VIP hold and tough Las Vegas Super Bowl comps .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, revenue ($1.70B*) and adjusted EPS ($1.07*) missed ($1.74B* revenue, $1.24* EPS), and EBITDA ($434.6M*) was below the $571.6M* estimate; Q4 2024 was a beat on revenue and adjusted EPS while Q1 2024 was also above consensus on both metrics*.
  • Management highlighted: Macau VIP hold below range (2.61% at Wynn Palace, 1.09% at Wynn Macau) and noted an EBITDAR impact of ~$38–$40M; Las Vegas demand and slots remained healthy ex-Super Bowl .
  • Capital returns/catalysts: $200M buyback in Q1 (2.36M shares at $84.76 avg), $0.25 dividend declared, and another $100M repurchased in Q2-to-date; UAE development advanced to the 47th floor, still expected to open in 2027 .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Las Vegas delivered $625.3M of revenue and $223.4M of Adjusted Property EBITDAR (35.7% margin), with slot handle up and demand healthy excluding Super Bowl comps; management: “we were up across the board…drop, handle, RevPAR, nongaming revenues and EBITDAR” when removing Super Bowl weekend .
  • Macau mass market remained resilient despite competition; Wynn Palace mass win% 24.8% (vs 24.5%) and market share within expected range; Gourmet Pavilion launched with ~2,400 incremental daily covers driving visitation .
  • Balance sheet and liquidity strong: $2.07B cash and $1.09B combined revolver availability; continued capital returns (dividend, $200M buyback) underscoring confidence .

What Went Wrong

  • Macau VIP hold materially below expected ranges—Wynn Palace VIP win 2.61% (vs 3.1–3.4% range); Wynn Macau VIP win 1.09%—pressuring EBITDAR by a little over $38–$40M .
  • Year-over-year declines across segments: operating revenues fell at Wynn Macau (-$81.8M), Wynn Palace (-$51.0M), Las Vegas (-$11.3M), and Encore Boston Harbor (-$8.6M); consolidated Adjusted Property EBITDAR fell to $532.9M from $646.5M .
  • U.S. tariff backdrop prompted a delay of ~$375M of CapEx (including the Encore Tower remodel), adding execution/timing uncertainty to near-term project plans .

Financial Results

Consolidated Sequential Comparison (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.69 $1.84 $1.70
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.29) $2.29 $0.69
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.90 $2.42 $1.07
Adjusted Property EBITDAR ($USD Millions)$527.7 $619.1 $532.9

Consolidated YoY Comparison and Estimates

MetricQ1 2024 ActualQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 ConsensusComment
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.86 $1.84 $1.70 $1.74*Miss vs revenue consensus*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.30 $2.29 $0.69 N/A
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.59 $2.42 $1.07 $1.24*Miss vs EPS consensus*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$554.4*$488.1*$434.6*$571.6*Miss vs EBITDA consensus*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Segment Breakdown (Operating Revenues and Adjusted Property EBITDAR; oldest → newest)

SegmentQ1 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q4 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q1 2025 Revenues ($MM)Q1 2024 EBITDAR ($MM)Q4 2024 EBITDAR ($MM)Q1 2025 EBITDAR ($MM)
Wynn Palace$586.9 $562.9 $535.9 $202.4 $184.6 $161.9
Wynn Macau$411.7 $363.7 $330.0 $137.2 $108.2 $90.2
Las Vegas Operations$636.5 $699.5 $625.3 $246.3 $267.4 $223.4
Encore Boston Harbor$217.8 $212.7 $209.2 $63.1 $58.8 $57.5

Key Operating KPIs (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

KPIWynn Palace Q1 2024Wynn Palace Q1 2025Wynn Macau Q1 2024Wynn Macau Q1 2025Las Vegas Q1 2024Las Vegas Q1 2025Encore Boston Q1 2024Encore Boston Q1 2025
Occupancy (%)98.8 98.3 99.4 99.1 88.0 87.4 89.7 88.1
ADR ($)$337 $222 $284 $234 $595 $527 $381 $357
REVPAR ($)$333 $218 $282 $232 $524 $461 $342 $315
Mass Table Win %24.5 24.8 19.4 18.7 25.9 24.3 22.6 20.5
VIP Win % of Turnover3.30 2.61 3.39 1.09 ————

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ1 2025$0.25 (Q4 2024) $0.25 (payable May 30, 2025) Maintained
Macau CapEx (incl. concession commitments and other)FY 2025N/A$250–$300M Introduced
U.S. CapEx (Encore Tower remodel + projects)2025 timingProceeding (prior plan)~$375M delayed due to tariffs Lowered/Deferred
Share RepurchasesQ1 2025Authorization $813M remaining (12/31/24) $200M repurchased in Q1; $613M remaining; +$100M repurchased Q2-to-date Executed; remaining reduced
UAE Project (Wynn Al Marjan Island)Opening2027 expected 2027 expected; tower at 47th floor Maintained timeline/progress

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (oldest)Q4 2024Q1 2025 (current)Trend
Tariffs/macro impactNot a headline theme in PR Not a headline theme in PR Direct OpEx impact expected low; ~$375M CapEx delayed; monitoring demand uncertainty Rising execution risk on U.S. CapEx; cautious on macro
Macau competitive dynamicsPremium mass strong; VIP win within/above range Premium mass and VIP strength cited; steady share Promotional environment “stable”; day-to-day competition; VIP hold poor; mass resilient Stable competition; focus on service/amenities/ML
Las Vegas demand/ADRNon-gaming solid; slight revenue decline YoY Near-record annual EBITDAR; high table win; ADR strong Healthy demand; slots strong; ex-Super Bowl, broad-based strength; revenue +4% CASINO Healthy; comps normalize post-Super Bowl
UAE development progressConstruction advancing; 2027 target Tower at 35th floor; 2027 target Tower at 47th floor; fit-out beginning; budget bought out Steady progress; increasing visibility
Capital returnsAuthorization increased to $1B $200M buyback; $0.25 dividend $200M buyback Q1; $100M Q2-to-date; $0.25 dividend; Wynn Macau final dividend proposed $125M Sustained returns, multi-geo

Management Commentary

  • Craig Billings (CEO): “We expect the direct impact of tariffs on OpEx to be low…CapEx…current tariff rates have driven us to delay about $375 million of CapEx projects, including the Encore Tower remodel” .
  • Craig Billings (CEO): “In Macau…poor VIP hold costing us nearly $40 million of EBITDAR…adjusted for VIP hold, we grew market share sequentially and improved EBITDAR margins from Q4 to Q1” .
  • Julie Cameron‑Doe (CFO): “Our Macau operations delivered…EBITDAR margin of 29.1%…Lower‑than‑normal VIP hold impacted EBITDAR by a little over $38 million…OpEx…was approximately $2.64 million per day in Q1, flat year‑on‑year” .
  • Craig Billings (CEO): “Construction is now up to the 47th floor…we will top out later this year…we believe the property will be well positioned as the only integrated resort to open in the near term” .
  • Craig Billings (CEO): “While our stock price continues to inappropriately reflect the value of our assets, we will buy back stock. To that end, we purchased $200 million of stock in the first quarter and another $100 million thus far in Q2” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Vegas reinvestment/promotions: Reinvesment correlates with ADR; Super Bowl in prior year explains lower apparent promos; demand/pricing remain strong .
  • International inbound: Post‑COVID, international is ~9% of Las Vegas room nights; easily backfilled; minimal impact from Canada/Mexico softness .
  • Macau competition: Premium mass remains critical; promotional environment stable; competition is “day‑to‑day, hand‑to‑hand combat”; leveraging service, product quality, and machine learning for offers .
  • New York license: Still in the running; mindful of online gaming and tariffs on build costs; will not overextend to win .
  • CapEx timing/tariff response: ~$375M pause led by Encore Tower remodel; re‑spec/resourcing needed; rooms remain sold through year; timing uncertain until tariff clarity .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2024 EstimateQ1 2024 ActualQ4 2024 EstimateQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 EstimateQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.80*$1.86 $1.77*$1.84 $1.74*$1.70
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.39*$1.59 $1.27*$2.42 $1.24*$1.07
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.602*$0.554*$0.560*$0.488*$0.572*$0.435*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Note: S&P Global “Actual” EPS reflects adjusted (non‑GAAP) EPS; press release/8‑K provide both GAAP ($0.69 in Q1 2025) and adjusted ($1.07 in Q1 2025) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 2025 was a normalization quarter: ex-Super Bowl comps, Las Vegas remains solid with 35.7% EBITDAR margin; slots strength supports resilience .
  • Macau headwinds were hold‑driven, not volume‑driven; mass stable and market share held; expect EBITDAR recovery with normalized VIP win .
  • Consensus misses on revenue and adjusted EPS increase sensitivity to near‑term Macau hold and U.S. tariff overhang; watch for stabilization signals in monthly KPIs*.
  • Capital return commitment is robust ($200M Q1 buyback, $100M Q2‑to‑date; $0.25 dividend), with Wynn Macau proposing a $125M final dividend, highlighting free cash flow durability .
  • UAE project is advancing on schedule with significant buyout/budget certainty, offering a medium‑term growth catalyst into a potentially $5B+ GGR market .
  • Tariff‑related CapEx delays (~$375M) reduce near‑term renovation risk to operations but push project timing right; expect re‑spec updates once tariff rates settle .
  • Liquidity remains strong ($2.07B cash; ample revolver capacity), supporting both development and shareholder returns .

Values retrieved from S&P Global* where noted.